Wicked Cynthia Erivo Best Actress
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The world of Oz is glowing again — not with magic, but with major Oscar buzz. After the massive success of last year’s Wicked movie, the sequel Wicked: For Good has officially entered the awards season conversation. And Hollywood has one burning question:

Can Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo earn Oscar nominations again — and maybe even make history?

In this blog, we break down everything: the award predictions, critic reactions, pundit rankings, and whether the witches of Oz can bring home gold in 2026.

Why Wicked: For Good Is Back in the Oscar Race

Last year’s film adaptation of Wicked didn’t just dominate the box office — it scored 10 Oscar nominations, won awards for production design and costume design, and secured acting nominations for both Cynthia Erivo (Best Actress) and Ariana Grande (Best Supporting Actress).

Now, with the second and final installment of Jon M. Chu’s adaptation in theaters, industry experts are expecting another awards season sweep.

Could the sequel match or even surpass the first film’s success?

Many believe it can — especially because it’s releasing in prime Oscar season, with strong box office numbers and heavy audience engagement.

Best Picture Chances: Can Wicked Repeat the Magic?

Pundits from major entertainment outlets have already placed Wicked: For Good in their projected Best Picture lineup:

  • IndieWire: Ranked 10th

  • Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg): Ranked 8th

  • Variety (Clayton Davis): Ranked 6th

GoldDerby compares the sequel’s awards potential to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, where the final chapter rewarded the franchise with historic wins. While a full sweep is unlikely, the “final chapter advantage” is definitely in play.

Cynthia Erivo’s Best Actress Chances

Cynthia Erivo is once again receiving strong praise for her performance as Elphaba. GoldDerby lists her safely in the Top 5 predictions for Best Actress.

However, the competition this year is fierce, including:

  • Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

  • Emma Stone (Bugonia)

  • Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

  • Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)

  • Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

  • Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)

Even though Wicked will outperform all these films at the box office, blockbuster leads rarely win Oscars. Cynthia would need strong industry support to overcome this.

But if she does win?

She becomes an EGOT winner.

That alone makes her one of the most watched contenders this season.

Ariana Grande for Best Supporting Actress: Can She Win This Time?

Ariana Grande is receiving some of the strongest reviews of her entire career for her portrayal of Glinda in Wicked: For Good.

Critics are glowing:

  • The New York Times praised her dramatic close-up work

  • The Daily Beast titled its review: “Give Ariana Grande the Oscar”

  • The Playlist called her performance “spectacular” and said she could absolutely win

Her competition this year includes:

  • Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

  • Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)

  • Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

  • Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

  • Amy Madigan (Weapons)

But unlike last year, fewer actresses are competing in musical roles, which boosts Grande’s chances significantly.

Many award analysts believe she is one of the frontrunners — and could walk away with the trophy.

Why the Sequel Has Strong Awards Appeal

  • Perfect release timing (Fall — peak Oscar season)

  • Massive fanbase and cultural impact

  • Outstanding production and costume work

  • Strong narrative closure as the final chapter

  • Powerful performances from the lead actresses

Even if the film doesn’t win every category, it will likely be a major presence at the 98th Academy Awards.

Final Thoughts: Will Oscar Gold Return to Oz?

The Oscar race for Wicked: For Good is shaping up to be one of the most exciting storylines of the year. If Ariana Grande or Cynthia Erivo win, they could make Hollywood history — especially Erivo with a possible EGOT.

Nothing is guaranteed, but one thing is certain:

Wicked’s grip on pop culture and awards season isn’t ending anytime soon.

The witches are back. And they’re aiming for gold.

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